Background & The Challenge
Futron provides the Federal Aviation Administration with an annual forecast of non-geostationary launch demand. The FAA is the United States government agency responsible for regulating and promoting commercial launches, spaceports, and commercial human spaceflight. To accurately plan, prepare, and formulate decisions, the FAA depends on a detailed and accurate forecast of launch activity for the next ten years. The major challenges of accurately forecasting commercial launch activity include uncertainty inherent in the global nature of the industry, as well as the interplay between commercial and government sponsored space launch.
The Journey & The Discovery
The FAA contracted with Futron originally because of our unique, deep expertise within the space industry. Futron has provided the federal government with decision management solutions supporting its various space related agencies including the US Air Force, NASA, NOAA, and others. In the late 1990s, Futron completed a large forecast of global launch capacity for NASA titled ASCENT. This forecasting effort helped establish Futron’s demonstrated capability to provide the industry’s most accurate launch forecasts. In 2002 and updated in 2006 Futron produced a forecast of global demand for Suborbital Space Tourism that served as the industry standard for understanding the size of this emerging market.
The Solution & Implementation
The FAA and Futron collaborate to develop an optimal forecast methodology that includes utilization of Futron’s unique resources, experience, and global industry contacts. The forecasts foundation is derived from Futron’s Electronic Library of Space Activity (ELSA) database. ELSA contains all launch vehicles and satellites launched globally since sputnik including satellite and launch vehicle capability, lifespan, reliability, cost, and much more. The forecast utilizes primary research including interviews with spacecraft manufacturers, satellite operators, launch providers, and regulators. Futron’s forecasting methodology looks beyond carefully created company press releases and examines investor confidence in new satellite systems, insurance industry perspectives, and potential hiccups in the financing process.
Although no forecast is ever perfect, Futron’s forecasting methodology lays out the known sources of uncertainty and the possible magnitude of influence that each could cause in the forecast. This transparent approach provides the FAA, and the industry that rely on the launch forecast, with not only a transparent quantitative methodology but also insight into the cycles and relationships that influence the dynamics of the industry.
The Results
The FAA forecast is used by government and industry within the United States and globally. FAA forecast data is routinely cited in publications from around the world.